Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0612…559a sports 1250 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,576 (+1%) realized +$1,921 · open −$345
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%659W / 578L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$1,537est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$309
14 days−$1,786
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$896
other 5% −$195
world 2% +$58
politics 1% −$42
tech 0% +$114
finance 0% −$63
culture 0% +$41
economics 0% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 +5.0% -5.0% 52% 51% -10.4%
≤30d 838 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 50% -9.4%
≤90d 1237 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 53% -8.7%
all 1237 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 53% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 53% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 49% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 44% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 37% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$79 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,521
Realized+$1,921
Unrealized−$345
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses659 / 578
Est. fees paid−$1,537
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1237 / 1250
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $263 $265 +$2 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $197 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 63¢ 84¢ $131 $174 +$43 (+33%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 50¢ 57¢ $148 $169 +$21 (+14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 53¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Over 49¢ 42¢ $180 $154 −$26 (-14%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ 55¢ $113 $117 +$3 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 16¢ $303 $58 −$245 (-81%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 55¢ 56¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 51¢ 49¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 6¢ $160 $20 −$139 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $88 +$129 +146%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $77 +$140 +180%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $172 +$45 +26%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $163 −$163 -100%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $56 +$89 +158%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $89 −$4 -4%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $45 +$62 +138%
Royan (Doubles): Fancutt/Rai vs Hsu/Zhu Jun 17 $18 +$7 +42%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $122 +$60 +49%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $39 +$109 +276%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $52 +$25 +48%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $286 +$84 +30%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $269 +$102 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $175 +$145 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $114 +$110 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $112 +$81 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $258 +$113 +44%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $75 +$142 +188%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $27 +$92 +344%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $38 +$43 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $154 +$46 +30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $104 +$113 +109%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $187 +$30 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $227 +$109 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $169 +$34 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $38 18m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $132 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $50 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $12 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $199 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $6 3h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 40¢ $88 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $266 7h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 48¢ $106 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 63¢ $86 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 63¢ $6 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 63¢ $46 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $78 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $26 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 45¢ $4 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 45¢ $89 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 45¢ $4 8h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Alexandrova 42¢ $84 8h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 38¢ $56 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 58¢ $85 9h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 21¢ $21 9h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 21¢ $5 9h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 21¢ $0 9h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 21¢ $0 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $108 9h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 75¢ $163 10h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Jacopo Vasami 29¢ $41 10h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 62¢ $91 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $68 10h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 42¢ $45 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,521.32 · official $1,521.35 (match) · 3500 history records