Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0612…49e4 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-4%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 47% -19.5%
≤30d 36 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 47% -19.5%
≤90d 36 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 47% -19.5%
all 36 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 47% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 47% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 39% -27.2%
15% -25.5% 39% -34.3%
20% -32.8% 36% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$43 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $136 −$129 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$38 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$96 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$51 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $48 +$19 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $55 +$65 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $84 −$31 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $53 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $53 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$51 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $147 −$141 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $113 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $67 −$63 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$40 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$22 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$30 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $37 +$60 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $105 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records