Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0616…f829 crypto 1213 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-4%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate69%837W / 376L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 35% -19.2%
≤30d 92 -16.9% -24.8% 50% 35% -23.9%
≤90d 744 -8.7% -17.4% 65% 24% -16.5%
all 1213 -5.9% -14.9% 69% 22% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 22% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 10% -22.8%
15% -30.5% 6% -30.3%
20% -37.3% 4% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses837 / 376
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1213 / 1213
History coverage121d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1213 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2891 history records