Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
06 0x0617…d993 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$94 (+9%) realized +$97 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +32.8% +20.1% 53% 53% -0.3%
≤30d 15 +32.8% +20.1% 53% 53% -0.3%
≤90d 15 +32.8% +20.1% 53% 53% -0.3%
all 15 +32.8% +20.1% 53% 53% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.1% 53% -0.3%
10% +8.6% 40% -9.8%
15% -1.8% 40% -18.5%
20% -11.5% 27% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +98% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$51 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$304 +874%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $232 −$230 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$17 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $232 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.02 · official $217.02 (match) · 27 history records