Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
06 0x0617…e371 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$17
crypto 23% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 60% -1.0%
≤30d 20 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 60% -1.0%
≤90d 20 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 60% -1.0%
all 20 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 60% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 60% -1.0%
10% -21.3% 50% -10.5%
15% -28.9% 40% -19.1%
20% -35.9% 30% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $32 +$18 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$16 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $50 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 64¢ $32 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 36¢ $5 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $5 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26 BUY 51¢ $36 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 73¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 20¢ $51 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records