Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0618…7c77 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+6%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$37
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$11
sports 11% +$20
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 42% -6.8%
≤30d 40 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 38% -6.9%
≤90d 40 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 38% -6.9%
all 40 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 38% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 38% -6.9%
10% -15.9% 28% -15.8%
15% -24.0% 20% -23.9%
20% -31.5% 15% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage9d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $243 +$25 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$3 +2%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 +$27 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$37 -74%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $121 +$2 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 55¢ $38 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $142 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records