Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x0619…d801 sports 751 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,259 (+1%) realized +$1,368 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%218W / 519L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$436est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$5,839
other 26% +$1,612
sports 18% +$1,245
politics 9% −$442
finance 3% −$794
tech 2% −$2,228
crypto 1% +$3,736
economics 1% +$16
culture 0% −$25
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -3.1% -12.3% 15% 15% -56.9%
≤30d 212 +2.1% -7.6% 28% 27% -2.4%
≤90d 521 -6.9% -15.7% 29% 27% -9.3%
all 737 -2.2% -11.5% 30% 28% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 28% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 25% -19.9%
15% -27.7% 24% -27.7%
20% -34.8% 21% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$85 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$646
Realized+$1,368
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses218 / 519
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$436
Open positions14
Markets (closed)737 / 751
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$174
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $170 $207 +$37 (+22%)
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Yes 25¢ 31¢ $130 $161 +$31 (+24%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 14¢ 100¢ $14 $100 +$86 (+614%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $94 $77 −$17 (-18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $85 $72 −$12 (-15%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-73%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 5¢ 1¢ $22 $4 −$19 (-83%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-88%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? No 37¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$121 (-100%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Under 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 28 $231 −$15 -7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $74 +$57 +77%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $5 +$95 +1845%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $37 −$36 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc Jun 26 $37 −$33 -90%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 26 $135 +$160 +119%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $736 −$736 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $293 +$122 +42%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $15 +$34 +223%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $25 +$125 +510%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $19 +$465 +2500%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $13 34m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $16 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $112 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $131 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $9 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $2 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $57 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $231 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $74 7h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 37¢ $122 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $14 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 7h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 7h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $9 7h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $13 28h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc SELL Yes 2¢ $4 28h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY Yes 18¢ $37 28h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 14¢ $22 31h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $25 31h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $12 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $62 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $646.02 · official $646.32 (match) · 3500 history records