Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
06 0x061c…1ff4 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%42W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$6
crypto 11% +$3
other 6% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 +0.4% -9.1% 75% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses42 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage534d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $66 $0 +1%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 21 $14 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donnovan Clingan win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Apr 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Mar 23 $5,293 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +3%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 31d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $47 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $61 93d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 122d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $49 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $11 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $57 151d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $14 181d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $46 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $19 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 212d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 241d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $39 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 99¢ $9 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $41 273d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 99¢ $7 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 303d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $45 303d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 99¢ $15 335d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 99¢ $51 335d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $32 367d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 393d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 395d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.91 · official $70.91 (match) · 121 history records