Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x061d…48ea crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$863 (-30%) realized −$863 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%23W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$242
14 days−$265
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$380
other 24% −$289
sports 8% −$194
politics 1% −$8
tech 1% −$1
weather 1% −$12
economics 1% −$23
world 1% −$6
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.5% -38.9% 22% 22% -66.9%
≤30d 18 -52.2% -56.8% 17% 17% -70.5%
≤90d 48 -49.5% -54.3% 21% 19% -71.6%
all 104 -28.6% -35.4% 22% 18% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 18% -39.4%
10% -41.6% 16% -45.2%
15% -47.2% 12% -50.5%
20% -52.4% 11% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$863
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses23 / 81
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage130d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $107 −$106 -99%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 20 $26 +$81 +316%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $33 −$33 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $25 −$24 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$10 +73%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $85 −$36 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $18 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 30 $21 −$9 -44%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $18 −$18 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $59 −$57 -97%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 15 $11 −$10 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 15 $59 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 13 $14 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $17 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 06 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 28 $45 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 28 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3PM ET Mar 28 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 28 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 29? Mar 28 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$10 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 28 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 28 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 28 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 28 $21 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 28 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 16? Feb 17 $481 −$112 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $41 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $47 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $60 2d
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3d
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $107 3d
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $26 3d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $33 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $31 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $66 4d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 12¢ $25 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $45 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $40 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 7d
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $18 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 15d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 24d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 10¢ $18 24d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 4¢ $26 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 24d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 7¢ $33 24d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records