Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
06 0x061e…8e88 other 132 markets active 19h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 105L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$720per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$13
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$153
politics 34% −$38
sports 20% +$194
world 2% +$20
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 +1.9% -7.8% 12% 6% -9.6%
all 131 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 13% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 13% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 8% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$987) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$9 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$525
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage124d
Avg bet$720
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $525 $525 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,701 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $710 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,788 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 03 $274 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 03 $339 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,268 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $386 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $514 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,913 −$5 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $976 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $864 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2,433 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,607 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $3,068 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $780 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,109 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $1,344 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,206 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $1,734 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $471 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $525 18h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $473 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $473 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $874 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $875 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $685 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $686 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $825 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $827 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $870 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $871 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $864 10d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $865 10d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $718 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $719 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $709 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $710 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $960 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $962 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $319 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $320 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $386 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $386 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $309 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $310 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $330 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $331 20d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $351 20d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $352 20d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $386 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.39 · official $525.39 (match) · 450 history records