Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x061f…aa02 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-14%) realized −$33 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$19
sports 12% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -23.8% -31.1% 33% 33% -77.1%
≤30d 3 -23.8% -31.1% 33% 33% -77.1%
≤90d 3 -23.8% -31.1% 33% 33% -77.1%
all 3 -23.8% -31.1% 33% 33% -77.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 33% -77.1%
10% -37.7% 33% -79.3%
15% -43.7% 33% -81.3%
20% -49.2% 33% -83.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals No 69¢ 64¢ $98 $92 −$6 (-7%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 59¢ 60¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 21¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $14 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $71 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 36¢ $14 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $28 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $71 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 32¢ $8 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 11¢ $28 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 20h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 20h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 29h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.98 · official $193.71 · 12 history records