Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0621…017a crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,068 (+25%) realized +$1,068 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$104
14 days+$260
30 days+$1,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$538
sports 33% +$524
crypto 17% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.8% -45.5% 33% 33% -31.9%
≤30d 13 +24.0% +12.2% 62% 62% +18.1%
≤90d 13 +24.0% +12.2% 62% 62% +18.1%
all 61 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 48% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 48% +10.0%
10% -21.8% 48% -0.5%
15% -29.3% 44% -10.1%
20% -36.3% 43% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$28 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,068
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage104d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $146 −$84 -57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $184 +$70 +38%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $99 −$98 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $173 −$171 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $410 +$300 +73%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$30 +224%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,333 +$302 +23%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$5 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$104 +204%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $814 +$637 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 20 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 20 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 20 $40 +$46 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 18 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$20 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 17 $77 −$29 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 35¢ $92 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 4¢ $62 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $74 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 43¢ $254 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $184 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $99 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $173 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $410 12d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $43 12d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $826 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $810 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,333 13d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $42 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $102 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $155 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $51 16d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $999 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 43¢ $437 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 46¢ $452 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $377 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $30 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $30 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records