trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -6.1% | -15.0% | 20% | 0% | -11.4% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 30% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 24 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 46% | 4% | -13.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.7% | 4% | -13.2% |
| 10% | -22.0% | 4% | -21.5% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 4% | -29.1% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 0% | -36.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 52¢ | $38 | $36 | −$2 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 22 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $60 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $44 | −$2 | -5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $37 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 25 | $3 | −$1 | -26% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 24 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $44 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 23 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 21 | $39 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 20 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Apr 28 | $1 | +$1 | +47% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 10 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 05 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? | Apr 04 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? | Apr 03 | $2 | −$1 | -28% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 03 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $11 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 22 | $2 | $0 | -7% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 21 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Mar 19 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 16 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? | Mar 12 | $12 | $0 | +1% |