Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
06 0x0622…1d2c other 11 markets active 10h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-14%) realized −$171 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$128
sports 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 60% -23.9%
≤30d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 60% -23.9%
≤90d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 60% -23.9%
all 10 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 60% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 60% -23.9%
10% -22.9% 60% -31.2%
15% -30.4% 50% -37.9%
20% -37.2% 30% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$139 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $406 −$403 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.38 · official $99.39 (match) · 19 history records