Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0626…1ec3 politics 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 664d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$21
other 25% −$4
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 100 -13.3% -21.5% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -29.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -35.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -42.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

664d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage664d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the Pacific Division? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will another player lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump Media acquire a crypto exchange in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Will Campbell be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2024 NBA Cup? Dec 10 $0 $0 -3%
Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel be the next DNC chair? Nov 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will De’Aaron Fox lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 23h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $54 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $54 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 28d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 36d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 36d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 36d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 36d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 41d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 41d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 45d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 46d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $55 69d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $55 70d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $55 77d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $55 78d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 84d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 84d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 87d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 87d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 91d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 92d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 92d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 99d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 99d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records