Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x062f…2e5b other 113 markets active 3h ago coverage 130d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$200 (+28%) realized +$202 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%46W / 45L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$379
14 days+$427
30 days+$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$254
other 36% +$167
crypto 7% +$10
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +144.2% +121.0% 53% 53% +98.9%
≤30d 75 +80.2% +63.1% 55% 55% +74.9%
≤90d 75 +80.2% +63.1% 55% 55% +74.9%
all 91 +60.6% +45.3% 51% 51% +70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.3% 51% +70.0%
10% +31.4% 49% +53.7%
15% +18.7% 46% +38.9%
20% +7.0% 43% +25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +125% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.39 per $1 lost it wins $4.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$202
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses46 / 45
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 113
History coverage130d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$45 +89%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 +$31 +1484%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +43%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Bosnia a Jun 24 $10 +$27 +266%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$6 +286%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 +$14 +464%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$56 +110%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $18 +$14 +76%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +148%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $31 −$12 -40%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$12 +596%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 22 $15 +$116 +754%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $21 +$22 +105%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$20 +193%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 +$11 +550%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $5 +$46 +899%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$11 +208%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$5 +86%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$23 +1115%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? SELL Yes 96¢ $33 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Bosnia a SELL 81¢ $38 6h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 8h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 8h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026- BUY 18¢ $20 20h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06- BUY 9¢ $10 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Bosnia a BUY 22¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 34h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 34h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $10 34h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: BUY 12¢ $8 34h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 13¢ $15 37h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Portuga BUY 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $107 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL 14¢ $13 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $18 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $18 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? AND Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Alger BUY 2¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.25 · official $8.25 (match) · 180 history records