Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0633…355a sports 391 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$150 (-2%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%202W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$123
14 days+$161
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$179
sports 39% −$283
world 1% −$42
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +16.9% +5.8% 53% 53% +4.9%
≤30d 107 -3.5% -12.7% 45% 44% -21.6%
≤90d 107 -3.5% -12.7% 45% 44% -21.6%
all 390 +2.2% -7.6% 52% 49% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 49% -10.8%
10% -16.4% 48% -19.3%
15% -24.5% 46% -27.1%
20% -31.9% 42% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses202 / 188
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)390 / 391
History coverage181d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +64%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 +$20 +196%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 −$11 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $18 −$7 -37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 +$30 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $18 −$9 -50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$12 +81%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 +$25 +124%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$24 +58%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +126%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$17 +112%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$5 -44%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $24 −$23 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$12 +52%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 +$26 +72%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$10 +99%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 +$8 +68%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $27 +$37 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 +$18 +69%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$6 +66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $6 +$30 +528%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$8 +162%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $38 −$37 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$11 +112%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -85%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$8 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $17 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 3h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 3h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 5h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 32¢ $12 5h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $18 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 23¢ $9 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $18 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 29h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $30 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $23 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $31 2d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2d
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.49 · official $46.49 (match) · 820 history records