Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:05:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0636…c529 sports 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30,304 (-16%) realized −$31,716 · open +$1,412
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%82W / 126L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$873per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$2,889est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$7,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$1,116
14 days+$291
30 days+$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$42,296
other 10% +$1,516
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +78.5% +61.5% 100% 100% +68.2%
≤30d 11 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 55% +1.7%
≤90d 208 -18.6% -26.4% 39% 38% -30.5%
all 208 -18.6% -26.4% 39% 38% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 38% -30.5%
10% -33.4% 35% -37.1%
15% ← realistic here -39.8% 34% -43.2%
20% -45.7% 27% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,182) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$696 vs −$788 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$7,282
Realized−$31,716
Unrealized+$1,412
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses82 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,889
Open positions9
Markets (closed)208 / 217
History coverage68d
Avg bet$873
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 59¢ $201 $1,696 +$1,495 (+743%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 61¢ 60¢ $1,220 $1,190 −$30 (-2%)
Japan leading at halftime? No 51¢ 50¢ $1,020 $1,010 −$10 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $980 $990 +$10 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $880 $850 −$30 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $660 $650 −$10 (-2%)
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $480 $470 −$10 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $240 $230 −$10 (-4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Under 14¢ 14¢ $189 $196 +$7 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$8 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $73 +$11 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $817 +$658 +81%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $401 +$439 +109%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 10 $84 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $117 −$116 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $209 −$209 -100%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $153 +$60 +40%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $473 −$467 -99%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $12 +$8 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $5 $0 -1%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 13 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $471 −$471 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $1,933 −$1,933 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $1,346 −$1,346 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Truist Championship May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) May 13 $221 −$221 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5) May 13 $660 −$660 -100%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) May 13 $602 −$602 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 1 Winner May 13 $908 −$908 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $855 −$855 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) May 13 $450 −$450 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 13 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) May 13 $614 −$611 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $113 −$16 -14%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $133 −$130 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 13 $462 −$454 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $202 +$457 +226%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) May 12 $64 +$138 +216%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $44 +$19 +43%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 11 $1,254 +$572 +46%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) May 11 $1,320 +$678 +51%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 11 $748 +$726 +97%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Truist Championship? May 11 $1,322 +$678 +51%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Truist Championship May 11 $1,005 +$995 +99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $1,201 −$1,201 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 10 $1,140 +$858 +75%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $8 3m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $2 4m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $0 8m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $8 8m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $3 15m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $3 30m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $0 36m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $0 58m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $22 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $0 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $150 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $573 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $32 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $240 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $109 2h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 2h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 2h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,281.96 · official $7,281.96 (match) · 1532 history records