Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0637…0fac other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-7%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%18W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$76
sports 41% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.7% -11.1% 67% 59% -12.2%
≤30d 27 -1.7% -11.1% 67% 59% -12.2%
≤90d 27 -1.7% -11.1% 67% 59% -12.2%
all 27 -1.7% -11.1% 67% 59% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 59% -12.2%
10% -19.6% 44% -20.6%
15% -27.3% 33% -28.3%
20% -34.5% 22% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses18 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$18 +59%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$22 +73%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$22 -72%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 24 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$19 -63%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 24 $30 +$11 +36%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $40 +$10 +24%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$13 +63%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$27 +89%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $30 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 +$6 +29%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$13 -63%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 +$21 +38%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 −$36 -74%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 +$8 +21%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $35 +$5 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $48 25m
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $53 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 18¢ $8 27h
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 28h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $30 29h
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 24¢ $11 29h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 31h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $30 32h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $40 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $33 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $58 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 86¢ $30 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $26 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $60 4d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 93¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records