Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
06 0x063a…524d other 56 markets active 4h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 42L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2
other 24% +$9
sports 7% +$7
finance 7% +$1
crypto 7% $0
politics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 20 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 21 +5.1% -4.9% 29% 10% -8.5%
all 56 +6.6% -3.5% 25% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 5% -8.4%
10% -12.8% 4% -17.1%
15% -21.2% 4% -25.1%
20% -28.9% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage258d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $52 +$2 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $85 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $8 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $97 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 −$1 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1 $0 -9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $10 −$1 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $99 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $79 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $18 −$2 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $106 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $5 +$8 +148%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $28 $0 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 14 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025? Oct 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $3 $0 +10%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $53 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $52 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $50 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $1 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $51 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $36 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $34 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $49 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $39 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $45 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $9 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $22 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $14 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records