Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x063a…eb4b
other · 38 markets active 183d ago
0.0score
+$342,721 +189%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$69,877 · open +$1,145
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,699
Realized+$69,877
Unrealized+$1,145
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4,760
Trades / day889.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 4 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days+$222
14 days+$222
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $1,089 $1,806 +$717 (+66%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 45¢ 67¢ $450 $668 +$218 (+48%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day? No 81¢ 100¢ $436 $536 +$99 (+23%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 50¢ $350 $505 +$155 (+44%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? No 70¢ 100¢ $130 $185 +$55 (+43%)
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 19¢ 0¢ $867 $0 −$867 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? No 32¢ 0¢ $731 $0 −$731 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 14 $436 +$222 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jan 15 $31,584 +$31 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) Jan 15 $896 −$896 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jan 15 $812 −$812 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $174 +$4,365 +2510%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $84 +$3,841 +4577%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $112 +$5,354 +4781%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $266 +$3,913 +1473%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $104 +$2,583 +2492%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $454 +$2,498 +550%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $199 +$1,974 +990%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $184 +$1,560 +846%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $584 −$207 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $218 −$120 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jan 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jan 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $105 −$99 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jan 15 $1,874 −$1,771 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $754 −$645 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jan 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $20,135 −$20,135 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 15 $267 −$236 -88%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? Jan 06 $324 +$353 +109%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jan 04 $71 +$93 +130%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $1,632 +$529 +32%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? Dec 22 $4,640 +$574 +12%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 22 $9,620 +$19 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 22 $412 +$68,842 +16694%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $100,000 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Dec 13 $731 −$731 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Dec 12 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 12 $1,507 +$334 +22%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Dec 12 $867 −$867 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 55% $0
other 37% +$71,862
tech 6% −$695
crypto 1% +$529
sports 0% −$896
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY No 31¢ $74 183d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY No 31¢ $11 183d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY No 31¢ $45 183d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY No 31¢ $45 183d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY No 31¢ $2 183d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY No 31¢ $4 183d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY No 31¢ $45 183d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 183d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 183d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 183d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+306.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 36 +349.0% +306.2% 47% 42% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover889.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +306.2% 42% -8.2%
10% +267.3% 36% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here +231.8% 33% -25.0%
20% +199.3% 33% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,698.74 · official $3,698.74 (match) · 3500 history records