Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

06 0x063b…3ebe other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$932 (+24%) realized +$932 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%6W / 2L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$491per market

Trades / day7.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+17.1%	+6.0%	75%	75%	+11.3%
≤30d	8	+17.1%	+6.0%	75%	75%	+11.3%
≤90d	8	+17.1%	+6.0%	75%	75%	+11.3%
all	8	+17.1%	+6.0%	75%	75%	+11.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.0%	75%	+11.3%
10%	-4.2%	50%	+0.7%
15%	-13.4%	38%	-9.1%
20%	-21.9%	38%	-18.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$168 vs −$52 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.77 per $1 lost it wins $9.77

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$932

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses6 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)8 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$491

Trades / day7.9

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 8 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$1,495	+$216	+14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$245	+$145	+59%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$735	+$125	+17%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$147	−$7	-4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$98	−$97	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$381	+$247	+65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$200	+$124	+62%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$627	+$151	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,711	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$44	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$471	3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$390	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$980	6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$860	6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	54¢	$140	9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$147	9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	49¢	$98	19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	62¢	$245	19h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$735	22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$381	32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$778	32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$627	45h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$200	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records