Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x063b…cf57 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
politics 28% $0
other 19% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.3% -6.6% 75% 25% -8.9%
≤30d 11 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 9% -9.2%
all 41 +0.1% -9.5% 39% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage302d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $38 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $4 $0 -4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 09 $19 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? Sep 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 08 $25 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 08 $3 $0 +6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $22 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 29 $2 $0 -18%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fighting Oligarchy spe Aug 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $38 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $8 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $33 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $29 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $32 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $33 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $37 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records