Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x063b…7328 crypto 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 708d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 707d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,412 (+3%) realized +$9,047 · open −$635
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%109W / 86L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$1,657per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 708d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3,509
crypto 26% +$3,294
other 10% +$2,312
politics 9% +$4,290
sports 4% +$2,195
finance 3% −$3,500
economics 3% +$2,121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 1 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 10 -9.3% -17.9% 60% 60% -16.1%
all 195 +16.3% +5.3% 56% 52% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 52% -7.4%
10% -4.8% 42% -16.2%
15% -14.0% 35% -24.3%
20% -22.4% 31% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,113) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$686 vs −$778 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$764
Realized+$9,047
Unrealized−$635
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses109 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage708d ⚠
Avg bet$1,657
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? No 49¢ 26¢ $1,399 $764 −$635 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $9,589 −$299 -3%
OGC Nice vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5 Apr 13 $1,512 +$489 +32%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $1,511 +$438 +29%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1,511 +$463 +31%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1,512 +$515 +34%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 11 $1,522 −$1,511 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Apr 10 $1,513 +$571 +38%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 10 $1,519 +$710 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 09 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Apr 09 $2,024 −$2,024 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 16 $5,993 −$2,101 -35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 16 $2,601 −$944 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 16 $1,717 −$455 -26%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 11 $678 −$354 -52%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $10,762 −$3,128 -29%
Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 20 $1,501 +$739 +49%
SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Jan 20 $1,501 +$808 +54%
Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $1,501 −$38 -3%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $1,001 +$389 +39%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $3,660 −$3,632 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 18 $2,000 +$1,878 +94%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $1,140 +$860 +75%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $1,071 +$1,029 +96%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $1,053 +$1,647 +156%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $1,120 −$886 -79%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $1,008 −$594 -59%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $1,550 −$763 -49%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? Jan 12 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 29 $720 +$780 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 29 $720 +$780 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 29 $750 +$750 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 29 $750 +$750 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 28 $750 −$750 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Dec 28 $735 −$735 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 28 $705 −$705 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 28 $735 +$735 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 28 $735 −$735 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 28 $721 +$88 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 28 $720 −$720 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 28 $795 +$690 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 27 $765 +$735 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 27 $735 +$765 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 27 $720 +$780 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 27 $750 +$750 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Dec 27 $750 +$750 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 27 $765 +$735 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 27 $750 +$750 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 27 $780 −$780 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 27 $765 −$765 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 27 $780 −$780 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL No 31¢ $2,148 30m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL No 31¢ $568 31m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL Yes 65¢ $2,839 32m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL Yes 66¢ $7 34m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL No 36¢ $9 34m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $100 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $180 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $571 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $65 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $259 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $400 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $723 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $42 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $90 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $763.64 · official $763.64 (match) · 3500 history records