Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
06 0x063f…d956 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$723 (-2%) realized −$721 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate90%54W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$31
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$110
other 11% −$378
finance 8% +$31
tech 6% −$517
world 6% +$13
economics 6% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 5 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 7% -8.8%
all 60 -5.8% -14.8% 90% 7% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 7% -11.5%
10% -22.9% 3% -20.0%
15% -30.4% 0% -27.7%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$840) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$186 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized−$721
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses54 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage262d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $690 $687 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $167 +$13 +8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $502 +$7 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $333 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,325 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 26 $1,324 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $1,322 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1,299 +$21 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 30 $1,296 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 27 $223 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $1,053 +$23 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $196 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 08 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 07 $1,248 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 27 $1,246 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 23 $534 +$15 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 22 $695 +$1 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? Mar 04 $694 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in February? Mar 04 $683 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 26 $690 +$3 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $719 −$538 -75%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 03 $710 +$9 +1%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 05 $376 −$376 -100%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jan 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 31 $705 +$4 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 30 $707 +$5 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 29 $376 +$8 +2%
Will Phantom launch a token in 2025? Dec 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 28 $82 +$8 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $699 +$6 +1%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 12 $598 +$103 +17%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Dec 05 $300 +$76 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 26 $671 −$73 -11%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 26 $10 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $667 +$5 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 08 $665 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 6? Nov 05 $665 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on November 3? Nov 04 $664 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 02 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 02 $541 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 30 $872 +$10 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 18? Oct 18 $865 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 18? Oct 17 $663 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 17? Oct 17 $201 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 15? Oct 17 $864 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? Oct 15 $873 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 13? Oct 14 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $690 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $181 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $509 12h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $502 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $168 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $335 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $167 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $167 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $666 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $333 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $89 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $166 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,325 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $774 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $546 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,324 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,323 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,322 35d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,320 38d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,299 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 100¢ $1,299 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1,296 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL No 100¢ $224 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $1,076 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $223 60d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $197 60d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $26 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.41 · official $687.41 (match) · 148 history records