Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0643…0a8c crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$269 (-16%) realized −$269 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$792
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -41.7% -47.2% 36% 36% -53.4%
≤30d 14 -41.7% -47.2% 36% 36% -53.4%
≤90d 14 -41.7% -47.2% 36% 36% -53.4%
all 14 -41.7% -47.2% 36% 36% -53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.2% 36% -53.4%
10% ← realistic here -52.3% 36% -57.9%
15% -56.9% 36% -61.9%
20% -61.1% 36% -65.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$125 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $77 +$53 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $344 −$344 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $180 +$130 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $257 −$257 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $130 +$86 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$57 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.58 · official $49.58 (match) · 66 history records