trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5 | Under | 92¢ | 100¢ | $14 | $15 | +$1 (+9%) |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 | Over | 93¢ | 92¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5 | Jun 06 | $14 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 06 | $1,569 | $0 | +0% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Jun 06 | $1,544 | $0 | -0% |
| Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5 | Jun 06 | $12 | +$1 | +11% |
| Barra FC leading at halftime? | Jun 06 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Kentucky Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns (W) | Mar 30 | $15 | +$1 | +9% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | Mar 30 | $15 | +$2 | +11% |
| Jazz vs. Suns | Mar 30 | $19 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 28? | Mar 30 | $185 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on | Mar 28 | $1,470 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t | Mar 28 | $99 | −$8 | -8% |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Mar 28 | $1,435 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 28 | $1,440 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | Mar 28 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after | Mar 28 | $1,459 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control | Mar 28 | $48 | +$4 | +9% |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Mar 28 | $1,437 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? | Mar 28 | $90 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? | Mar 28 | $1,418 | +$12 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con | Mar 28 | $1,467 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | Mar 28 | $24 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | Mar 28 | $57 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Mar 28 | $1,428 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 80% | 20% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +2.2% | -7.6% | 57% | 9% | -9.4% |
| all | 23 | +2.2% | -7.6% | 57% | 9% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.6% | 9% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 0% | -33.2% |