Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
06 0x0644…c7b0 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$336 (+8%) realized +$303 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate78%45W / 13L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$59
14 days+$14
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.1% +7.7% 83% 67% +0.4%
≤30d 23 +12.0% +1.3% 83% 70% -5.7%
≤90d 58 +12.5% +1.8% 78% 72% -4.2%
all 58 +12.5% +1.8% 78% 72% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 72% -4.2%
10% -7.9% 64% -13.4%
15% -16.8% 47% -21.7%
20% -25.0% 24% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$72 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses45 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage78d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Up 69¢ 94¢ $92 $125 +$33 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $85 +$46 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $82 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $75 +$41 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $121 −$119 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$49 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $82 +$33 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$38 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $87 +$47 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $109 −$106 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $99 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $92 +$32 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $86 +$34 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $77 +$46 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $71 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $68 +$18 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $66 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $63 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $169 −$167 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $122 +$67 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $78 +$26 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $99 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $95 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $62 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? May 16 $57 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $98 +$53 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $64 +$28 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $37 +$20 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $150 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27? May 06 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28? May 06 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26? Apr 26 $177 −$79 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25? Apr 25 $88 +$42 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $82 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $77 +$28 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $69 +$39 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $64 +$28 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $45 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 19? Apr 19 $56 +$23 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16? Apr 18 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Apr 18 $44 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $39 +$25 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15? Apr 16 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 14? Apr 14 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? Apr 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 69¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 63¢ $85 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $82 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 63¢ $75 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 22¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 70¢ $99 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 63¢ $90 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 70¢ $82 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 68¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 70¢ $96 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 63¢ $87 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 62¢ $109 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 67¢ $99 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? BUY Up 73¢ $92 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 70¢ $86 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? BUY Down 61¢ $77 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 75¢ $71 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? BUY Down 78¢ $68 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 88¢ $66 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? BUY Down 78¢ $63 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? BUY Up 98¢ $62 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? BUY Down 99¢ $61 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? BUY Up 41¢ $25 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? BUY Up 57¢ $23 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? BUY Up 61¢ $24 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? BUY Up 65¢ $98 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? SELL Down 100¢ $190 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 64¢ $36 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 64¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 63¢ $84 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.78 · official $124.78 (match) · 145 history records