Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
06 0x0644…9e9b world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$182 (+77%) realized +$54 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$123
other 22% +$62
sports 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +37.6% +24.5% 62% 62% +48.7%
≤30d 8 +37.6% +24.5% 62% 62% +48.7%
≤90d 8 +37.6% +24.5% 62% 62% +48.7%
all 8 +37.6% +24.5% 62% 62% +48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.5% 62% +48.7%
10% ← realistic here +12.6% 62% +34.4%
15% +1.7% 50% +21.5%
20% -8.2% 50% +9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)8 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 86¢ $29 $135 +$106 (+367%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 92¢ $33 $69 +$36 (+108%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 94¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+71%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 97¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+20%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 68¢ 99¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+47%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 39¢ 36¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 26¢ 14¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-77%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 43¢ 6¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-87%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$13 +223%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$15 +132%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $34 +$39 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$9 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $0 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $2 47m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 20h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $2 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $2 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.33 · official $292.34 (match) · 107 history records