Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x064b…9990
other · 21 markets active 6h ago
3.5score
+$7,663 +47%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,139 · open +$1,548
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$9,809
Realized+$6,139
Unrealized+$1,548
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 21
History coverage78d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 10 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2,310 $3,632 +$1,322 (+57%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,439 $1,887 +$449 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,467 $1,357 −$110 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $910 $894 −$16 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $800 $886 +$86 (+11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $473 −$27 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $450 $356 −$94 (-21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $128 −$38 (-23%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $106 $99 −$7 (-7%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $115 $96 −$19 (-17%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Thunder 15¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Purdue Boilermakers 52¢ $209 $0 −$209 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $175 +$26 +15%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $120 −$18 -15%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $27 −$26 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $308 +$634 +206%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $330 −$26 -8%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Apr 28 $669 +$551 +82%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,125 −$10 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $2,250 +$139 +6%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $1,813 +$5,268 +291%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 26 $210 −$209 -100%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $190 −$190 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% +$6,313
crypto 9% +$449
sports 9% +$925
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 12¢ $118 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $201 5h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 39¢ $108 28h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $102 28h
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Thunder 15¢ $27 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $122 40d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $820 40d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 32¢ $308 40d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $304 40d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,221 45d
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) SELL Nuggets 100¢ $1,220 45d
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) BUY Nuggets 54¢ $669 45d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $660 45d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 61d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -7.2%
≤30d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 33% -14.7%
≤90d 11 +25.1% +13.2% 45% 36% +67.5%
all 11 +25.1% +13.2% 45% 36% +67.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.2% 36% +67.5%
10% ← realistic here +2.4% 27% +51.4%
15% -7.5% 27% +36.8%
20% -16.6% 27% +23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,809.47 · official $9,813.82 (match) · 748 history records