Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x064b…eae5 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,175 (-0%) realized +$1,784 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%71W / 71L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$1,928per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$972
14 days−$1,244
30 days−$3,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,786
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -68.6% -71.6% 12% 6% -28.7%
≤30d 64 -41.9% -47.5% 36% 16% -15.7%
≤90d 142 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 23% -8.0%
all 142 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 23% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 23% -8.0%
10% -37.7% 11% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -43.7% 5% -24.9%
20% -49.2% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,578) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$213 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1,784
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses71 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 124
History coverage62d
Avg bet$1,928
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? No 84¢ 0¢ $2,846 $0 −$2,846 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? No 57¢ 0¢ $326 $0 −$326 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? No 12¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? No 55¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? No 20¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? No 13¢ 0¢ $399 $0 −$399 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? No 79¢ 0¢ $317 $0 −$317 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$13 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $29 +$14 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$3 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $953 −$322 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,178 −$38 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $464 −$37 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,398 −$517 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $210 −$191 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,114 +$23 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $731 −$10 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,445 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $302 −$237 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,154 +$68 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,083 +$138 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $508 −$58 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,521 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $742 −$311 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $489 −$25 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,422 +$365 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $150 +$10 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 25 $0 $0 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,165 −$38 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $41 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $27 7h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 14h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 23h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 31h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $23 32h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 33h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 34h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 40h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 41h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 41h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $42 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 46h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 47h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.77 · official $43.77 (match) · 3500 history records