Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x064c…34dc politics 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,368 (+1%) realized +$1,368 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%31W / 116L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,497per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$22
14 days−$58
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$126
politics 41% −$116
sports 11% +$1,577
economics 2% −$6
tech 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% +$1
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 36 -6.1% -15.1% 8% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 86 -15.1% -23.2% 6% 2% -9.7%
all 147 -3.7% -12.9% 21% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 8% -9.0%
10% -21.2% 8% -17.7%
15% -28.8% 6% -25.6%
20% -35.8% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,685) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$8 · ×9.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$1,368
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses31 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,497
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $450 $450 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $6,129 −$9 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,614 −$6 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9,840 −$10 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,018 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5,523 −$6 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,634 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,575 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,207 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,691 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,263 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,720 −$6 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,627 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $509 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $916 +$3 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,715 −$4 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 23 $53 +$44 +83%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,698 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $4,252 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,648 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 10 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,661 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,232 −$4 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $5,111 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $478 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $478 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $254 23h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $255 25h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,495 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,498 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,254 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,256 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,151 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,484 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,486 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,298 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,300 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,362 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,363 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $867 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $868 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,399 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,401 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,349 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,351 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,617 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,618 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $450 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,444 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,447 11d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,631 11d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,634 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,355 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.10 · official $450.10 (match) · 477 history records