Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0650…37e5 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$131 (+3%) realized +$127 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$456
other 30% +$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 49% -12.8%
≤30d 41 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 49% -12.8%
≤90d 41 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 49% -12.8%
all 41 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 49% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 49% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 37% -21.2%
15% -30.0% 27% -28.8%
20% -36.9% 24% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$79 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage7d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $97 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $274 +$36 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $164 +$39 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $182 −$27 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $79 +$41 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $129 +$102 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$36 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $58 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $93 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $87 +$21 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $235 +$46 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $207 +$121 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $407 +$164 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $534 −$457 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $155 −$147 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $98 +$58 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $200 +$31 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $180 +$156 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $236 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$18 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $38 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $79 −$36 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $158 −$60 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $80 −$46 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $150 +$118 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $181 +$137 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $171 −$10 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 +$42 +201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $110 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $68 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $29 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $231 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.99 · official $16.99 (match) · 264 history records