Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0659…94ea world 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%38W / 56L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days+$21
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$35
other 30% −$4
politics 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.8% -12.0% 55% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 35 -2.3% -11.6% 46% 3% -9.0%
≤90d 41 -2.0% -11.4% 49% 2% -9.3%
all 94 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.0% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses38 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage469d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $181 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $220 −$2 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $32 −$13 -42%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $196 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $173 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 +$1 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $232 −$4 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $351 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $326 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $194 +$51 +26%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $131 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $133 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $110 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $35 −$18 -52%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $149 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $107 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $539 +$12 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $223 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $165 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $323 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $295 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $160 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $34 −$7 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $78 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $150 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $162 −$15 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $155 +$9 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $1,120 +$2 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1,118 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $1,117 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $919 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $45 $0 +0%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $181 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $181 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $3 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $39 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $83 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $164 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $53 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $55 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $196 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $196 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $89 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $87 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $16 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $157 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 68¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $52 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.68 · official $0.00 · 333 history records