Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x065e…e1a5 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,260 (+1%) realized +$1,260 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 95L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,249per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$77
other 36% +$45
sports 12% +$1,258
economics 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
world 1% −$10
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 +1.3% -8.4% 5% 3% -8.5%
all 105 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 8% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -8.7%
10% -18.4% 8% -17.4%
15% -26.2% 6% -25.4%
20% -33.5% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,513) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$7 · ×25.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$818
Realized+$1,260
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage107d
Avg bet$1,249
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $818 $818 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $341 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,436 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,914 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,611 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,413 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,283 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 04 $594 +$2 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 28 $714 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,070 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $3,937 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,750 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $3,050 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,020 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 29 $1,603 +$953 +60%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,404 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,566 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $4,299 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,134 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,023 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3,130 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,196 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $341 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $341 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $819 33h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,435 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,436 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,474 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,465 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,467 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,364 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,366 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,436 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,438 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,608 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,611 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,411 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,413 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,256 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,258 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,282 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,283 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,235 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,291 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,293 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 18d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 18d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 18d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,077 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $713 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $818.44 · official $818.44 (match) · 303 history records