Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x065e…dac3 crypto 45 markets active 13h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$167
14 days−$167
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$227
politics 27% −$37
other 2% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 36% -13.4%
≤30d 36 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 36% -13.4%
≤90d 36 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 36% -13.4%
all 45 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 33% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 33% -13.4%
10% -23.3% 29% -21.7%
15% -30.7% 22% -29.3%
20% -37.5% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$36 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage150d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $209 −$82 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $207 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $306 −$138 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $205 +$76 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $207 +$82 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $410 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $205 −$43 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$42 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$68 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$35 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $105 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$28 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$28 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$78 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Jun 20 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 03 $19 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 03 $22 +$45 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 03 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 03 $489 −$32 -7%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $1,052 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $24 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $90 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $108 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $110 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $51 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $118 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $163 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $160 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $130 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $124 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $81 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $108 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records