Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0663…8568 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$78 (-6%) realized −$77 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$158
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$68
other 12% −$1
world 7% −$23
economics 3% $0
tech 3% +$2
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -48.7%
≤90d 11 -4.7% -13.8% 73% 27% -16.1%
all 19 -7.4% -16.2% 79% 16% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 16% -16.8%
10% -24.2% 16% -24.8%
15% -31.5% 16% -32.0%
20% -38.3% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$113 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage168d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $137 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $160 −$158 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $117 +$79 +67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $157 −$155 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 23 $42 +$30 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 12 $116 −$115 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 04 $249 +$251 +101%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 21 $12 $0 +3%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 21 $16 $0 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 21 $21 +$1 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 10 $24 −$23 -100%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 02 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 02 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 02 $22 $0 +1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? Feb 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on January 10? Jan 23 $25 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Jan 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.58 · official $135.60 (match) · 37 history records