Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0665…adb3 crypto 35 markets active 11h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$396 (-78%) realized −$396 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$417
crypto 18% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +25.6%
≤30d 34 +16.2% +5.1% 56% 56% +8.1%
≤90d 34 +16.2% +5.1% 56% 56% +8.1%
all 35 +12.9% +2.1% 54% 54% -81.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 54% -81.1%
10% -7.7% 54% -82.9%
15% -16.6% 54% -84.5%
20% -24.8% 54% -86.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage392d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$8 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 26 $417 −$417 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records