Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0669…6f74 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$21
other 20% −$15
politics 12% +$13
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 20% 20% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -6.7% -15.6% 20% 10% -14.3%
all 30 +24.6% +12.8% 27% 13% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 13% -12.4%
10% +2.0% 7% -20.8%
15% -7.9% 7% -28.5%
20% -16.9% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage256d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $51 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $49 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $6 +$1 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $3 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $68 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $52 −$13 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $73 −$10 -14%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $23 −$15 -65%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $4 $0 -7%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $22 +$2 +12%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $12 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 17 $2 +$3 +116%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 17 $1 +$11 +794%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $53 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $53 7h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $15 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $34 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $12 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $37 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $9 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $45 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $51 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $16 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $16 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.80 · official $4.80 (match) · 99 history records