Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x066a…550d world 167 markets active 3d ago coverage 465d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 464d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20,228 (+4%) realized +$17,042 · open +$3,186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%98W / 61L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,727per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$28,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,247
14 days+$3,247
30 days+$4,947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$17,280
politics 27% −$4,553
other 12% −$9,795
tech 4% +$1,860
economics 2% +$2,260
finance 1% −$220
crypto 1% +$11,559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +44.9% +31.1% 100% 50% +6.0%
≤30d 16 -21.5% -29.0% 56% 38% -3.5%
≤90d 38 -10.9% -19.4% 58% 45% -0.2%
all 159 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 45% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 45% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 30% -15.0%
15% -18.6% 18% -23.2%
20% -26.6% 13% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$2,505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$712 vs −$895 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$28,326
Realized+$17,042
Unrealized+$3,186
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses98 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)159 / 167
History coverage465d ⚠
Avg bet$2,727
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 92¢ $25,130 $28,317 +$3,186 (+13%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No 96¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 66¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+40%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 82¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 84¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No 97¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 89¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $1,548 +$21 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $7,802 +$351 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 +$30 +144%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $9,562 +$2,845 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 03 $105 +$20 +19%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 03 $4 +$1 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $21,770 +$5,227 +24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $1,882 −$1,882 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 25 $754 −$754 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 25 $1,000 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $21,610 +$576 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $5,973 +$1,045 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $8,995 +$693 +8%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6,154 +$3,050 +50%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,561 +$901 +35%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,538 −$425 -28%
SAVE Act becomes law by May 31, 2026? May 16 $1,026 +$134 +13%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $539 +$81 +15%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 14 $1,045 −$286 -27%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 12 $1,484 −$104 -7%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 10 $247 −$27 -11%
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? May 09 $936 −$786 -84%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 02 $570 +$370 +65%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $430 +$50 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $797 +$232 +29%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $347 +$333 +96%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 29 $12,808 +$755 +6%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+? Apr 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $6,073 +$1,223 +20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $1,221 −$241 -20%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Apr 17 $3,406 +$526 +16%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 07 $6,822 +$3,192 +47%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $1,126 −$664 -59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $3,843 −$220 -6%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 20 $1,845 +$48 +3%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 15 $829 +$21 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Mar 15 $1,312 +$118 +9%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 13 $3,369 +$44 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $1,463 +$271 +18%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 12 $1,287 +$201 +16%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Mar 12 $860 +$140 +16%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $1,715 +$735 +43%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 03 $2,407 +$11,236 +467%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 01 $168 +$13 +8%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? Feb 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Feb 23 $1,908 +$47 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market clos BUY No 93¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market clos BUY No 96¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $1,590 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 59¢ $1,569 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $500 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $651 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $464 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $191 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $292 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 59¢ $330 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $1,236 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $839 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $7,810 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 95¢ $8,661 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $810 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $45 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $164 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $37 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,326.35 · official $28,016.88 · 3500 history records