Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x066f…3110 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$8
world 25% −$1
politics 11% $0
sports 9% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 17% 0% -9.2%
all 31 -4.3% -13.4% 42% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 6% -8.5%
10% -21.7% 6% -17.3%
15% -29.2% 3% -25.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $82 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 28 $17 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 27 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $1 $0 -23%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 24 $1 $0 -43%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -56%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 19 $14 +$5 +33%
Devils vs. Stars Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $41 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $41 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $17 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $21 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $5 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $33 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $38 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $9 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $16 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $24 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $35 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $25 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $24 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $18 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $19 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $36 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 24d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 184d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY No 94¢ $1 362d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 376d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? BUY No 99¢ $2 393d
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City SELL No 98¢ $17 415d
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City BUY No 98¢ $17 415d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? SELL No 98¢ $17 416d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records