Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
06 0x0670…9b51 world 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$2,353 (-16%) realized +$3,303 · open −$4,212
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%38W / 23L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,232
14 days+$3,236
30 days+$3,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$842
sports 3% −$69
other 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.4% +16.2% 75% 75% +43.7%
≤30d 10 +45.4% +31.5% 70% 50% +43.7%
≤90d 61 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 56% +39.1%
all 61 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 56% +39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 56% +39.1%
10% -4.1% 38% +25.8%
15% -13.4% 36% +13.6%
20% -21.9% 31% +2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$10 · ×9.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.73 per $1 lost it wins $15.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,287
Realized+$3,303
Unrealized−$4,212
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses38 / 23
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage58d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 47¢ 10¢ $4,776 $962 −$3,814 (-80%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 12¢ $716 $318 −$398 (-56%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 45¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Under 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? No 31¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5,010 +$3,088 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $167 −$28 -17%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 08 $317 +$172 +54%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +159%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $0 $0 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $3 +$9 +301%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $5 $0 +6%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? May 13 $3 +$1 +22%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $1 +$4 +474%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 09 $44 +$60 +137%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 09 $20 +$4 +19%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $23 +$8 +37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $1 $0 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $1 $0 +16%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 05 $1 $0 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 05 $2 $0 +13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 05 $15 +$3 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 05 $1 $0 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $3 +$1 +17%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Apr 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 Apr 28 $90 −$54 -60%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5 Apr 28 $39 −$17 -44%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $74 +$64 +87%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $28 +$16 +56%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Apr 26 $50 +$18 +37%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 26 $6 +$1 +20%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5 Apr 26 $40 +$9 +22%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Apr 26 $20 −$12 -59%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 25 $4 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $20 +$34 +172%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $8 +$6 +72%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 Apr 25 $2 +$1 +71%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 24 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 23 $7 +$6 +80%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 6m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 6m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $2 54m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No $11 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $22 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $8 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $150 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $500 2d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 41¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $316 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $5 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $0 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $8 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $3 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $200 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $16 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $6 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $5 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $1,196 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,287.45 · official $1,236.74 · 305 history records