Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0674…5e43 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,477 (-1%) realized −$1,480 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,054per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$19
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$52
politics 36% −$56
sports 11% −$1,482
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$3
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -1.8% -11.2% 5% 0% -10.8%
all 123 -2.1% -11.4% 15% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 9% -10.6%
10% -19.9% 9% -19.1%
15% -27.6% 8% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,598) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized−$1,480
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,054
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $779 $782 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2,525 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $1,282 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,031 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,326 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,394 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,452 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,314 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $402 +$1 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $543 +$1 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $787 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,864 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,340 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $5,898 −$7 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,381 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,755 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,384 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $2,341 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $5,132 −$5 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,407 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,598 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,577 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $416 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $416 3h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $335 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $335 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $247 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $247 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $449 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $450 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $773 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $775 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $779 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,281 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,282 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,236 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,238 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,430 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,432 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,323 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,324 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,525 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,527 13d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,227 13d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,392 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,394 18d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,249 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,250 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,128 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.80 · official $781.80 (match) · 367 history records