Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x0678…2b25 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$13 (+10%) realized +$21 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$3
other 42% +$18
culture 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +68.2% +52.1% 67% 67% +34.8%
≤30d 15 +68.2% +52.1% 67% 67% +34.8%
≤90d 17 +58.3% +43.3% 65% 65% +28.1%
all 24 +34.2% +21.4% 58% 58% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.4% 58% +7.4%
10% +9.8% 58% -2.9%
15% -0.8% 58% -12.3%
20% -10.5% 46% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage94d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 43¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Lakers Bulls $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Knicks Warriors 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic Pistons 54¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 20¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Suns vs. Raptors Suns 39¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$7 +126%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -74%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$12 +413%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +41%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$2 +109%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$5 +78%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5 Mar 13 $3 +$3 +98%
Bulls vs. Lakers Mar 13 $2 −$1 -61%
Celtics vs. Thunder Mar 13 $15 +$6 +41%
Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 23.5 Mar 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 8m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $5 16m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 20m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 54m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 54m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $4 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 12¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Under $0 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 13h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $1 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $3 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 36h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND SELL 35¢ $5 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.76 · official $8.76 (match) · 64 history records