Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0678…a565 crypto 1717 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$230 (-1%) realized −$228 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%791W / 925L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days−$755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 54% -8.6%
≤30d 375 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 45% -22.3%
≤90d 1716 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 46% -17.0%
all 1716 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 46% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 46% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 46% -25.0%
15% -33.5% 46% -32.2%
20% -40.0% 45% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses791 / 925
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1716 / 1717
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1716 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 58¢ 48¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$18 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.29 · official $7.61 (match) · 3500 history records