Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x067e…a300 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$108 (+16%) realized +$112 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$34
sports 34% +$72
crypto 21% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.0% +22.1% 100% 100% +21.2%
≤30d 2 +35.0% +22.1% 100% 100% +21.2%
≤90d 2 +35.0% +22.1% 100% 100% +21.2%
all 2 +35.0% +22.1% 100% 100% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.1% 100% +21.2%
10% +10.4% 100% +9.6%
15% -0.2% 50% -1.0%
20% -10.0% 0% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$327
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $195 $192 −$3 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $99 +$37 +38%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $223 +$72 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $137 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 72¢ $99 3d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 84¢ $196 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $295 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 75¢ $223 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.73 · official $326.73 (match) · 6 history records