Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

06 0x067f…c39c crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$102 (+18%) realized +$88 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day36.0pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-15.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-6.7%	-15.6%	47%	47%	+5.3%
≤30d	19	-6.7%	-15.6%	47%	47%	+5.3%
≤90d	19	-6.7%	-15.6%	47%	47%	+5.3%
all	19	-6.7%	-15.6%	47%	47%	+5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover36.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-15.6%	47%	+5.3%
10% ← realistic here	-23.7%	37%	-4.8%
15%	-31.1%	37%	-14.0%
20%	-37.8%	32%	-22.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +50% → late -57% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$14 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$52

Realized+$88

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day36.0

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	28¢	40¢	$37	$52	+$15 (+40%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 27	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 27	$16	−$15	-93%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 27	$16	−$15	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 27	$11	−$9	-90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 27	$46	+$45	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 27	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 27	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 27	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 27	$21	+$24	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Jun 27	$32	−$32	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 27	$36	+$24	+67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 27	$16	+$6	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 27	$16	+$25	+160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 27	$122	+$16	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 27	$21	−$7	-34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 27	$20	+$3	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Jun 27	$19	+$10	+56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 27	$44	+$71	+160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 27	$64	−$20	-31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$39	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$16	1m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$16	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$1	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$11	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$11	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$4	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$9	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	SELL Down	73¢	$91	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$38	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$21	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$3	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$45	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$21	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	SELL Down	77¢	$60	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$36	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$136	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Up	5¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$111	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$14	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.35 · official $72.88 · 43 history records