Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
06 0x068c…582e sports 1220 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,128 (-2%) realized −$2,000 · open −$128
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%628W / 582L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$1,218est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$5,423
weather 4% +$339
other 1% +$240
politics 1% +$14
world 0% −$5
finance 0% −$250
tech 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +2.3% -7.4% 66% 66% -22.6%
≤30d 184 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 53% -17.2%
≤90d 1038 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 51% -12.0%
all 1210 -3.0% -12.2% 52% 50% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 50% -13.2%
10% -20.6% 48% -21.5%
15% -28.3% 44% -29.1%
20% -35.3% 38% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$87 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$2,000
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses628 / 582
Est. fees paid−$1,218
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1210 / 1220
History coverage96d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) South Africa 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $72 $84 +$12 (+17%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 77¢ 78¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 82¢ 93¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ $69 $10 −$59 (-86%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ $46 $2 −$44 (-97%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $44 +$6 +14%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $152 −$150 -99%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$3 +29%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 25 $25 +$15 +59%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 25 $12 +$9 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $70 +$35 +50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $12 +$9 +70%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $61 +$7 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 23 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $125 +$16 +12%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $48 −$6 -13%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $12 +$10 +79%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $5 +$10 +188%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 22 $39 −$38 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut Jun 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -99%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $50 +$16 +32%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +45%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $26 +$25 +93%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $25 +$10 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $11 +$9 +79%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$1 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $18 +$13 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $30 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 71¢ $101 2h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 16¢ $47 20h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $152 31h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 39¢ $9 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 100¢ $73 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $140 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $69 3d
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 57¢ $48 5d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $39 5d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 34¢ $5 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut BUY Luka Mikrut 33¢ $24 5d
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 82¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 55¢ $12 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $70 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $33 5d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 62¢ $73 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $10 5d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $44 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $26 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 62¢ $25 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 56¢ $12 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 74¢ $6 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Canada 83¢ $7 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 6d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 82¢ $60 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.78 · official $255.75 (match) · 2171 history records