Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x068d…fd41 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-8%) realized −$35 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$16
sports 21% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.1% -22.3% 38% 38% -21.5%
≤30d 8 -14.1% -22.3% 38% 38% -21.5%
≤90d 8 -14.1% -22.3% 38% 38% -21.5%
all 8 -14.1% -22.3% 38% 38% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 38% -21.5%
10% -29.7% 38% -29.0%
15% -36.5% 38% -35.9%
20% -42.7% 25% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$33 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $19 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $48 −$9 -18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$16 +49%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $59 +$36 +61%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $58 +$61 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 14m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $39 14m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 11h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $90 25h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $59 35h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 35h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.58 · official $20.81 · 17 history records