Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x068e…9b9e world 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2
other 35% +$5
sports 10% −$18
politics 8% +$2
weather 1% +$5
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 28 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 44 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 2% -9.6%
all 68 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 12% -9.8%
10% -17.4% 6% -18.4%
15% -25.4% 4% -26.3%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage538d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 −$1 -6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $14 −$1 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $45 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $116 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $90 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $86 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $87 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $33 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $39 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $135 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $6 −$1 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $5 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $44 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 27 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $257 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $236 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $236 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $237 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? Mar 04 $3 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 2m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 2m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $45 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $14 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records